I've been hearing for months now that the CDC was preparing to release new data on HIV incidence that would report a *dramatic* rise in new infections - perhaps as much as fifty percent. I'm the first to urge caution in the face of hysteria over new HIV/AIDS data, but this kind of a spike deserves some careful attention. It's no mistake that the CHAMP (Community HIV/AIDS Mobilization Project) Strategy Lab's conference call today features an extended dialogue on the question, "How is HIV incidence measured?" Indeed the subtitle for that discussion is, "Backgrounder for Understanding the CDC's Forthcoming New National HIV Incidence Estimates."

So we need to be look closely at this forthcoming data for a few things. First, were any states added to the mix? In the past, at least part of an increase in new infections could be explained by new states passing mandatory reporting laws (which basically mandate the confidential reporting of new HIV infections to the federal government). My sources tell me that this will not explain the new rise. Second, we need to look closely at *what populations* are driving this spike. MSM (men who have sex with men)? People of color? Women? Which groups seem to have spiked the most - and which (if any) have actually seen a decline.

But get ready, folks. Because when this data gets released - it looks like we're in line for a whole slew of op-eds and exploding talking gay heads. Some of the concern is obviously warranted - but we should be careful to understand exactly what the new data tells us. Not what we want it to!

You can read the Blade story here.